March 6th 2026
By Ari Parker
Calculate how long your retirement savings will last based on spending, Social Security, and returns. Learn strategies to make your money last—including controlling healthcare costs with the right Medicare coverage.
If you're worried about running out of money in retirement, you're not alone. Over half of retirees report anxiety about spending money in retirement, and 54% of pre-retirees worry about outliving their savings. It's one of the most common financial fears people face.
The honest answer to "how long will my money last?" is: it depends.
Your savings, spending habits, investment returns, and Social Security benefits all play a role. But one factor often catches people off guard—healthcare costs. Medical expenses are one of the largest and most unpredictable costs in retirement, yet they're also one of the few you can actively control with the right Medicare coverage.
This guide walks you through how to estimate your retirement savings longevity, the factors that affect it, and practical strategies to make your money last longer.
A simple formula can estimate how long your savings will last, but real-world factors like inflation and healthcare costs require adjustments.
The 4% withdrawal rule is a helpful starting point, though it doesn't work for everyone.
Healthcare costs are one of the biggest retirement expenses, and it’s one of the few you can significantly control through smart Medicare planning.
Ultimately, the length of time your retirement savings will depend on a number of different factors. We’ll talk about these in the next section.
That said, here's a basic way to estimate your retirement savings longevity:
Years your money will last = Total savings ÷ Annual withdrawals
For example, if you have $500,000 saved and plan to withdraw $40,000 per year, your money would last about 12.5 years, assuming no investment growth and no inflation.
Of course, retirement math isn't that simple. Your investments may continue growing, especially if you’ve moved them to low-risk options. Similarly, inflation is likely erode your purchasing power. And unexpected expenses, especially healthcare costs, can throw off even careful projections.
This formula gives you a rough starting point, but the factors below determine your actual timeline.
Several variables affect how long your money will last. Some are outside your control, but many can be managed with careful planning.
Start by adding up everything you have, including:
401(k) accounts
IRAs
Taxable brokerage accounts
Savings accounts
Any other investments
Some people also factor in home equity, though you can only access that money by selling your home or taking out a reverse mortgage.
The more you've saved, the longer your money can last—but how you manage withdrawals matters just as much as the total.
Your spending determines how quickly you draw down your savings.
Many financial advisors suggest the "4% rule" as a guideline, which we’ll discuss more in the next section. This approach historically gave retirees a high probability of their money lasting 30 years.
However, the 4% rule is a starting point, not a guarantee. If you retire early, have a shorter life expectancy, or face higher-than-average healthcare costs, you may need to adjust your withdrawal rate up or down.
Your investments don't stop working for you when you retire. A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds can continue generating returns that extend your savings.
However, retirees face something called "sequence-of-returns risk." If the market drops significantly in your early retirement years, it can permanently damage your portfolio's longevity, even if the market recovers later.
This is why many advisors recommend shifting toward more conservative investments as you approach and enter retirement.
A dollar today won't buy as much in 10 or 20 years. $50,000 in a decade might only be worth the equivalent of $45,000 today in terms of buying power, for example, depending on what happens with inflation.
Your retirement plan needs to account for rising costs over time, which is why many retirees gradually increase their withdrawals each year.
Guaranteed income sources like Social Security and pensions dramatically extend how long your savings will last. Every dollar you receive from Social Security is a dollar you don't need to withdraw from your accounts.
For example, if you need $50,000 per year and Social Security provides $24,000, you only need to withdraw $26,000 from savings. That nearly doubles how long your portfolio can last compared to relying on savings alone.
Delaying Social Security until age 70 increases your monthly benefit by about 8% per year past your full retirement age, which can significantly boost your guaranteed income.
Healthcare is often the largest expense retirees face, and is among the most difficult to predict.
A 65-year-old couple retiring today can expect to spend $366,000 or more on healthcare throughout retirement, according to recent estimates. That figure doesn't include long-term care, which can cost $50,000 to $100,000 or more per year.
The good news? Healthcare costs are one of the few major retirement expenses you can control. Choosing the right Medicare coverage can save thousands of dollars annually.
The average 65-year-old today can expect to live into their mid-80s, but many people live well into their 90s. Planning for a longer life means your money needs to stretch further. It's generally better to plan for living longer than you expect rather than risk running out of money.
Withdrawals from traditional 401(k)s and IRAs are taxed as ordinary income. This means you’ll need to pay income taxes on your annual return.
Required minimum distributions (RMDs) force you to start withdrawing from these accounts at age 73, whether you need the money or not. A tax-efficient withdrawal strategy—which may include drawing from taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts in the right order—can reduce your lifetime tax burden and help your savings last longer.
Choosing the right withdrawal strategy can add years to your retirement savings. Here's a closer look at common approaches.
The 4% rule has been the standard retirement guideline for decades. It's based on historical market data suggesting that withdrawing 4% annually gives you a strong chance of your money lasting 30 years.
But it's not perfect for everyone. Some alternatives include:
Dynamic withdrawal strategies adjust your withdrawals based on market performance. You take less in down years and more in good years, which can extend your portfolio's life.
The bucket strategy divides your savings into short-term, medium-term, and long-term buckets. You keep one to two years of expenses in cash, five to ten years in bonds, and the rest in stocks. This protects you from having to sell stocks during a downturn.
Guardrails approaches set upper and lower limits on withdrawals. If your portfolio grows significantly, you can spend more. If it drops, you cut back temporarily.
Healthcare expenses deserve special attention because they're both significant and variable. Understanding these costs helps you plan more accurately.
Here's why they matter so much:
Medicare Part B premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance add up quickly without supplemental coverage.
Prescription drug costs vary dramatically depending on your Part D plan.
Dental, vision, and hearing care aren't covered by Original Medicare.
Long-term care costs can deplete savings rapidly if you need extended nursing home or in-home care.
The right Medicare plan can save you thousands each year.
Medicare Advantage plans, for example, often include additional benefits like dental and vision coverage depending on the plan you choose, and Medicare Supplement plans reduce out-of-pocket costs for hospital and doctor visits.
Comparing your options annually during open enrollment helps ensure you're not overpaying.
How long your retirement savings will last depends on several factors, many of which you can control. Your withdrawal rate, investment strategy, and when you claim Social Security all affect your timeline.
Healthcare costs deserve special attention. They're one of the largest retirement expenses, but also one of the few you can actively manage. Choosing the right Medicare coverage—and reviewing it each year—can protect your savings and give you more financial security throughout retirement.
If you're unsure whether your savings will last, consider working with a financial advisor to create a personalized retirement plan.
A common guideline suggests saving 10 to 12 times your pre-retirement annual income. However, your actual needs depend on your lifestyle, healthcare costs, and other income sources like Social Security.
The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your retirement savings in your first year, then adjusting for inflation annually. It's designed to give your money a high probability of lasting 30 years.
Track your current expenses, then adjust for retirement. Some costs decrease (commuting, work clothes), while others increase (healthcare, travel). Recent research found that many retirees spend 70% or less of their pre-retirement income.
For most people, no. The average Social Security benefit in January 2025 was $1,976 per month. Social Security was designed to replace 40% of pre-retirement income for average earners, so most people need additional savings.
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